Novato, CA — March 13, 2026 — Following the release of the Preliminary 2025 California Grape Crush Report, Turrentine Brokerage, the largest California grape and bulk wine brokerage company, has issued a market assessment characterizing the 2025 vintage as one of the most challenging for the wine industry since Prohibition.

According to the new state data, the total tons crushed came in at 2.62 million tons. This figure is above initial projections and well above what was felt by the industry. Statewide volume is 8% below 2024 and 23% below the five-year average. Total red wine production declined by 9% and white wine production declined by 6%.

“The decrease in tons is still very positive news for the industry overall,” said Steve Fredricks, President at Turrentine Brokerage.

“The 2025 vintage highlights the industry’s directional shift of declining production and an overall restructure of the industry. The year represented continued challenges for growers and wineries that were strikingly apparent at harvest,” said Audra Cooper, Vice President at Turrentine Brokerage. “Between a cooler growing season, reduced vineyard inputs, and multiple rain events that led to excessive late-season disease pressure, combined with soft demand, 2025’s challenges were relentless.”

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Key Takeaways from 2025

A Correction in Volume
The 2025 crop is the lightest on record since 1999. This reduction is attributed not only to weather and acreage removals, but also to a lack of grape demand, which left significant tonnage uncontracted and unharvested.

Reduced Crop Value
The total 2025 crop value throughout California was down 16% from last year to $2.414 billion and down 22% from the five-year average. Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Pinot Noir, and Zinfandel declined by more than $330 million in total crop value from the prior year.

Low Market Activity
Buying activity for grapes and bulk wine remained low statewide through the end of the season. Late-season activity was largely limited to opportunistic plays in the North Coast and Paso Robles for Cabernet Sauvignon, with minimal movement to replace grapes rejected due to disease pressure.

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Industry Analysis and Outlook

The 2025 Grape Crush Report highlights a pivotal moment in the restructure of the California wine industry. Wineries planned to go light on this vintage, and it is estimated that 57,000 acres were removed, with significantly more fruit left unharvested in 2025. This strategic decision, combined with seasonal challenges, accelerated the market’s transition.

The five-year average crop size from 2019 to 2023 was 3.6 million tons. Efforts to reduce crop size in 2025 resulted in a decrease of approximately 1 million tons from the five-year average — the equivalent of 72 million cases.

While the industry is largely trending toward a decline in total production, Sauvignon Blanc increased by 22,000 tons and Pinot Gris increased by 8,000 tons from 2024. This is a concern as more acres come into production for both varieties, and Sauvignon Blanc continues to be widely discussed between nurseries and growers for additional plantings.

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Regional Highlights

North Coast — Christian Klier

• Tons crushed of Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon in 2025 were similar to 2024, primarily due to increased yields per acre, while district average pricing decreased modestly.
• District average prices across the North Coast were not representative of spot market prices for new contracts for the second consecutive year. For example, Sonoma County Chardonnay showed a district average price of $2,370 per ton, while spot market pricing was closer to $800 per ton.
• Mendocino County Pinot Noir district average prices surpassed Sonoma County due to a lack of large volume end-of-season deals and relatively high per-ton pricing in Anderson Valley.

Central Coast — Eddie Urman

• Yields per acre were substantially healthier than in 2024, despite harvesting 10,700 fewer tons. Total Central Coast volume does not fully reflect the amount of fruit left unharvested due to soft demand.
• Central Coast Cabernet Sauvignon production has declined by 52,000 tons since 2023, reflecting market contraction. However, District 8 volume increased 13% year over year due to improved yields and stronger demand for Paso Robles grapes relative to neighboring regions.
• Sauvignon Blanc tons crushed in Districts 7 and 8 increased by 32% compared to 2024, bringing totals in line with the large 2023 crop. Significant unharvested Sauvignon Blanc volume in 2025 created a misleading perception of supply growth.
• District 8 Cabernet Sauvignon sales value has declined 44% since 2023, highlighting grower pressure more accurately than the 11% decrease in district average pricing from 2024 to 2025.

San Joaquin Valley — Mike Needham

• Statewide tons crushed for French Colombard declined by more than 46,000 tons, while Muscat of Alexandria declined by more than 18,000 tons, reflecting soft demand and acreage removals, particularly in the southern San Joaquin Valley.
• The Lodi Chardonnay crop was the smallest on record since 1998 at 86,000 tons, marking the second consecutive year below 100,000 tons.
• California Zinfandel production continues to decline sharply, with only 51,400 tons crushed in Lodi (District 11), a region that historically exceeded 100,000 tons prior to 2023.